Forecasting

1. The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollment for this academic year based on the following historical data:

5 years ago                          15,000

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4 years ago                           16,000

3 years ago                            18,000

2 years ago                            18,000

Last year                                  16,000

What is the forecast for this year using exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.5, if the forecast for two years ago was 16,000?

2. Gradual, long-term movement in time-series values is called:

3. Which of the following statements is true with regard to causal forecasting?

a) Causal forecasting requires non-linear relationships inthe data.

b)Exponential smoothing is commonly used for causalforecasting.

c)Causal forecasting should only be used if other methods are inaccurate.

d) Causal forecasting generates a forecast of the dependent variable.

e) None of the above

4. In exponential smoothing with trend, the forecast consists of:

5. Which of the following statements is true regarding the Mean absolute deviation measure and the Mean square error measure?

a) Both are error measures used in forecasting.

b) The value of one measure is typically identical to the other.

c)The Mean absolute deviation measure is more accurate.
d)The Mean absolute deviation measure places greater weight on large errors.

e) All of the above.

6. Which of the following statements is true with regard to linear regression?

a)It does not assume a linear relationship.

b) It is used to predict the value of an independent variable.

c) The slope must be greater than or equal to 1.

d)It can be used to establish data relationships.

e) All of the above

7. Using the following data, what is the moving-average forecast for the next period using a three period model?

Period  Demand

1               58

2               59

3                60

4                61

8. In order to increase the responsiveness of a forecast made using the moving-average method, the number of values in the average should be:

9. The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollment for Year 3. Using exponential smoothing with trend, the forecast for the current year (Year 1) is 20,000. Assume the estimated trend is 1,500. What is the forecast for Year 3?

10. Two different forecasting methods are applied to the same data set. If the Mean absolute deviation is higher for the second method and the Mean square error is higher for the first method, what does this indicate?

a) The error measure for the first method is easier to interpret.

b) Both methods produce unacceptably high error rates.

c) The first method is less accurate than the second method.

d) The second method produces more extreme errors than the first method.

e) None of the above

11. Which of the following is an example of a seasonal pattern in data?

a) The data values are continually increasing with time.

b) The data exhibits an exponentially smoothed pattern.

c) The data variation is erratic in most quarters.

d) The volume of calls is dependent upon the product release schedule.

e) None of the above

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