Develop a forecasting model

Forecasting Attendance at SWU Football Games

Southwestern University (SWU), a large state college in Stephenville, Texas, 30 miles southwest of the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex, enrolls close to 20,000 students. In a typical town-grown relationship, the school is a dominant force in the small city, with more students during fall and spring than permanent residents.

A longtime football powerhouse, SWU is a member of the Big Eleven conference and is usually in the top 20 in college football rankings. To bolster its chances of reaching the elusive and long desired number-one ranking, in 2008 SWU hired the legendary Billy Bob Taylor as its head coach. Although the number-one ranking remained out of reach, attendance at the five Saturday home games each year increased. Prior to Taylor’s arrival, attendance generally averaged 25,000 to 29,000 per game. Season ticket sales bumped up by 10,000 just with the announcement of the new coach’s arrival. Stephenville and SWU were ready to move to big time!

The immediate issue facing SWU, however, was not NCAA ranking. It was capacity. The existing SWU stadium, built in 1953, has seating for 54,000 fans. The following table indicates attendance at each game for the past six years.

One of Taylor’s demands upon joining SWU had been a stadium expansion, or possibly even a new stadium. With attendance increasing, SWU administrators began to face the issue head-on. Pitterno has wanted dormitories solely for his athletes in the stadium as an additional feature of any expansion.

SWU’s president, Dr. Marty Starr, decided it was time for his vice president of development to forecast when the existing stadium would “max out”. He also sought a revenue projection, assuming an average ticket price of $20 in 2014 and a 5% increase each year in future prices.

1. Develop a forecasting model, justifying its selection over other techniques, and project attendance through 2015.
2. What revenues are to be expected in 2014 and 2015?
3. Discuss the school’s options.

	2008			2009			2010
Game	Attendees	Opponent		Attendees	Opponent		Attendees	Opponent
1	34200	Baylor		36100	Oklahoma		35900	TCU
2*	39800	Texas		40200	Nebraska		46500	TexasTech
3	38200	LSU		39100	UCLA		43100	Alaska
4**	26900	Arkansas		25300	Nevada		27900	Arizona
5	35100	USC		36200	OhioState		39200	Rice
	2011			2012			2013
Game	Attendees	Opponent		Attendees	Opponent		Attendees	Opponent
1	41900	Arkansas		42500	Indiana		46900	LSU
2*	46100	Missouri		48200	North Texas		50100	Texas
3	43900	Florida		44200	TexasA&M		45900	Prairie View A&M
4**	30100	Miami		33900	Southern		36300	Montana
5	40500	Duke		47800	Oklahoma		49900	ArizonaState
*Homecoming games

Solution: